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Mesoscale Discussion 1724
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN SC AND ERN/SERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 172018Z - 172215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
   WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE DEW
   POINTS AROUND 70 F AND PW AROUND 1.7 INCHES/ HAS RESULTED IN
   MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J PER KG/.  ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
   AND -10 C 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROVING SUFFICIENT FOR RAPID CLOUD
   TOP COOLING WITH MOST OF THE STORM CELLS IN THIS REGION PER GOES-R
   CLOUD TOP COOLING PRODUCT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT IS
   SUPPORTING SOME STORM ROTATION WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
   BEING THE GREATEST THREATS WITH PRIMARILY PULSE-TYPE STORMS THROUGH
   THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A
   SEWD MOVING BOUNDARY...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND INTERACTIONS OF
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND THESE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 09/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33548205 34008078 32767973 32318014 31808078 31568129
               31588170 32468225 33548205 

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Page last modified: September 17, 2014
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