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Mesoscale Discussion 1725
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO...SE KS...NW AR...NE OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 172039Z - 172145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
   ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NW AR INTO SW MO...WITH NEW
   DEVELOPMENT FAVORING AREAS TO THE W WHERE THE MORE UNSTABLE INFLOW
   AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS NE OK.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SOMEWHAT MESSY SUPERCELLS ALONG
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS WITH SWWD EXTENT.  THE ONGOING STORMS
   SHOULD POSE AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND RISK FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WHILE
   MOVING SWD INTO NW AR...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM A BIT
   FARTHER W INTO EXTREME SE KS AND NE OK IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO. 
   THE MOST ORGANIZED/INTENSE STORMS ARE OCCURRING NOW...WITH MORE
   OUTFLOW-DRIVEN/WEAKER SHEAR CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH TIME INTO OK. 
   THUS...THE NEED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT CLEAR FROM
   HERE FORWARD.

   ..THOMPSON.. 09/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   35919288 35599269 34839267 34569283 34489323 34639450
               34819509 35389530 36599518 37189506 37309465 37279432
               36999406 36469381 35919288 

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Page last modified: September 17, 2014
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