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Mesoscale Discussion 1726
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...FAR E-CNTRL CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 211855Z - 212100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...AND
   FAR E-CNTRL CO. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS RAPID GROWTH OF A
   TOWERING CU FIELD ALONG/AHEAD OF A LEE SFC TROUGH...ORIENTED FROM
   JUST W OF IML SSWWD TO NEAR LIC. THIS IS OCCURRING AMIDST STRONG
   DIURNAL HEATING...AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF SRN WY
   INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTION TO
   CONTINUE GRADUALLY GROWING AND SLOWLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS SWRN
   NEB/NWRN KS THE NEXT FEW HRS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AMIDST LOW-MID 60S
   SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE TO STRONG
   DESTABILIZATION...BUT GENERALLY WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
   WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SVR
   THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
   WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST TSTMS THE NEXT FEW HRS. A
   WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE/SUSTENANCE.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38419966 38290196 39060355 39690284 40630227 41010158
               40759910 39739880 38419966 

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Page last modified: August 21, 2015
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