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Mesoscale Discussion 1726
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0620 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 172320Z - 180045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
   TO SPREAD EWD/ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
   WHILE A MARGINALLY SVR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE ISSUANCE OF A
   WW IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CROSBY COUNTY TO NRN GAINES
   COUNTY IS SURGING SWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX S
   PLAINS...UNDERCUTTING INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS THAT HAVE FORMED IN ITS
   PROXIMITY. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG
   AIDED BY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S. DESPITE POOR TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...THIS DEGREE OF
   BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THRIVE
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS 25-35 KT OF MID-LEVEL WLYS GLANCE THE
   AREA. THIS ENHANCED FLOW AND RELATED DEEP SHEAR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
   A LOCALLY TIGHTENED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ON THE ERN EDGE OF A
   LONG-LIVED VORT MAX...WHICH EMERGED OVER W TX FROM NM PER A LONG
   LOOP OF MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
   AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST AIDED BY WATER LOADING...ASSOCIATED WITH
   PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES PER GPS DATA. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ALSO CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT...THOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES WILL BE A DETERRENT TO HAIL
   GROWTH ALOFT. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET OWING TO THE
   LOSS OF DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 09/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32330110 32550212 32940214 33620071 33340004 32739999
               32330110 

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Page last modified: September 18, 2014
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