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Mesoscale Discussion 1727
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0657 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 212357Z - 220200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THAT COULD NECESSITATE
   WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1003 MB LOW OVER SE NM WITH A
   THERMAL AXIS IN FAR ERN NM WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID
   90S. IN ADDITION...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED IN
   WEST TX WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 F WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN
   MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WRN
   EDGE OF THE MOIST CORRIDOR NEAR TUCUMCARI AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
   ALONG THE TX-NM STATE-LINE WHERE CONVERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
   PRESENT. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   THE TX PANHANDLE MAY ALSO HELP SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE LUBBOCK
   WSR-88D VWP SHOWS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 3 AGL
   ALONG WITH ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE
   SHEAR...INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH
   FOR STORM ROTATION AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AS DOWNDRAFTS BECOME
   MORE DEVELOPED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
   ALSO OCCUR.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 08/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33210215 33140296 33550339 35380359 35880222 35410160
               33720155 33210215 

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Page last modified: August 22, 2015
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