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Mesoscale Discussion 1727
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AR AND ADJACENT ERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 180046Z - 180245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOW-END SEVERE RISK MAY LINGER LOCALLY ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN AR VICINITY.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
   MOVING SWD/SWWD INVOF THE NWRN AR/ERN OK BORDER ATTM...NEAR AND JUST
   TO THE COOL SIDE OF AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  EVENING RAOBS
   CONFIRM THAT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS
   AREA...AS HAS BEEN DEPICTED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...THUS ASSISTING
   IN CONTINUED CELL REGENERATION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  

   THE STRONGEST STORM -- NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS CRAWFORD CO -- HAD
   SHOWN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT
   HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED.  WHILE SHEAR OVER SRN MO/NRN AR IS SUPPORTIVE
   OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS WITH SWWD EXTENT -- AND
   THUS EXPECT A GRADUAL/CONTINUED DECREASE IN SEVERE RISK AS STORMS
   SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE MORE FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THAT
   SAID HOWEVER...DEGREE OF CAPE SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF
   STORMS...AND THUS SEVERE RISK MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
   STORMS CONTINUE ADVANCING ACROSS THE OK/AR BORDER AREA.

   ..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 09/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36529510 36289495 35879434 35409353 34729336 34539443
               35379567 36469559 36529510 

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Page last modified: September 18, 2014
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