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Mesoscale Discussion 1728
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL KS INTO SWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 180610Z - 180815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NCNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL KS
   INTO SWRN MO WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGH 08Z.
   AT THIS TIME...ANY HAIL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED
   AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE FROM NCNTRL KS SEWD THROUGH
   SWRN MO. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
   ZONE WHERE MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT EXISTS.
   THIS ZONE OF ASCENT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN CLOUD-LAYER FLOW
   SUGGESTING STORMS WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. STORMS ARE
   EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE MUCAPE...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW CELLS
   TO DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS PARAMETER SPACE WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL NEXT COUPLE HOURS. TREND MAY BE FOR
   MOST STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH TIME WHICH MAY
   TEND TO MITIGATE A MORE SUSTAINED LARGE HAIL THREAT.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 09/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39619828 38939585 37639312 36649292 36589374 37109493
               38839854 39619828 

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Page last modified: September 18, 2014
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