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Mesoscale Discussion 1728
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0854 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 221354Z - 221500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST FOR
   THE NEXT COUPLE HRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS MOVING S-SEWD ACROSS
   E-CNTRL OK. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...NOCTURNAL TSTM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
   UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION APPROACHING THE OZARK PLATEAU IS PERSISTING
   INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS E-CNTRL OK. REPORTS OF ISOLATED SVR
   WIND GUSTS WERE RECEIVED WITHIN THE PAST 1-2 HRS NEAR STILLWATER OK.
   ALTHOUGH RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWED SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH
   THE INITIAL TSTM CORE...NEW UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO OCCUR
   ALONG THE SRN FLANK AS RICH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E INFLOW IS MAINTAINED
   AMIDST A 30-35 KT LLJ OBSERVED IN TLX VWP DATA. THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING
   ALSO SAMPLED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PW NEAR 1.75
   INCH...CHARACTERIZING A THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   STRONG CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SOME BACKING/WEAKENING OF THE LLJ IS
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR THE NEXT FEW HRS...TSTMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
   E-CNTRL OK AND CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR
   WIND GUSTS...BUT THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE
   ATTM.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 08/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35889455 34979501 34589568 34559648 34649687 35419728
               35809725 36079676 36179558 36369476 36179455 35889455 

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Page last modified: August 22, 2015
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