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Mesoscale Discussion 1729
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NV/SRN AND ERN ID/SWRN MT/WRN AND NWRN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181932Z - 182130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONGER...SUSTAINED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL.  AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO
   SUPPORT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWED A CORRIDOR
   OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM NERN NV THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
   ID TO SWRN MT...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A GRADUAL
   INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THIS CONFLUENCE/FRONT. 
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ATTENDANT TO A MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED
   MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH NRN NV/SRN ID /PER WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS LIKELY COMPENSATING FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
   500-1000 J PER KG/ ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE GOES-R CLOUD TOP COOLING
   PRODUCT VERIFIES THIS TREND PER SEVERAL STORMS FROM NERN NV TO ERN
   ID HAVING STRONGER/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.  WHILE THE WEAKER INSTABILITY
   MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG-SEVERE
   STORMS...INCREASING BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT SUGGESTS STORM
   ORGANIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
   HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 09/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...
   REV...

   LAT...LON   40601752 41721647 43141468 44051385 44821313 45361238
               45621044 44581025 42881153 41531314 40501447 40501551
               40601752 

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Page last modified: September 18, 2014
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