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Mesoscale Discussion 1729
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...ARKANSAS...FAR NE TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 221753Z - 222000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT
   THIS TIME...THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT APPEAR TOO
   LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1745Z...A DECAYING MCS WAS MOVING ACROSS SERN
   OK...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL APPROACHING FSM. WHILE
   INTENSITY HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD...HEATING OF A VERY MOIST
   AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REJUVENATION ALONG
   THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION
   TO A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
   MIDLEVEL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH A WELL-DEFINED EWD-MOVING VORT-MAX...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
   AND VWP DATA FROM FSM/LIT SHOWING 25-35 KTS IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER.
   THIS WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND. WEAK LAPSE
   RATES/MODEST BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THREAT...MAKING
   WW ISSUANCE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THE THREAT WILL BE
   REASSESSED IF ORGANIZED AND VIGOROUS STORM STRUCTURES EMERGE OUT OF
   THE ONGOING CONVECTION.

   ..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 08/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34859491 35729463 35759372 35799225 35739141 35719098
               35679063 35599035 34769071 33979160 33609244 33279379
               33579472 34309610 34859491 

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Page last modified: August 22, 2015
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