Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1730
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1730 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0552 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182252Z - 182345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL
   PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL VIGOROUS STORMS OVER S-CNTRL
   MT IN STILLWATER COUNTY.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE EAST AND
   DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EWD-MOVING STORMS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.  MODIFYING AREA RAP SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT
   SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS AROUND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE.  STRONG
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT /KBLX VAD/ HAS LED TO
   AROUND 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR --SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES.  THE GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE W COAST
   TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT WILL ACT TO PARTIALLY DELAY THE
   DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS OF COOLING THIS EVENING.  EVENTUAL NOCTURNAL
   STABILIZATION VIA THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

   ..SMITH/GOSS.. 09/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   45700969 46290723 46080656 45720639 45120679 45030992
               45320997 45700969 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 18, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities