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Mesoscale Discussion 1730
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...CNTRL/NRN AL...FAR WRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 221844Z - 222045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
   A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT MAKES WW
   ISSUANCE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1840Z...SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS
   PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN AL INTO FAR WRN GA...WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS
   ALLOWED MODERATE BUOYANCY TO DEVELOP...WITH THE MOST RECENT
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA.
   IN ADDITION...A BELT OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
   WITH A VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER AR IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
   25-35 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES.
   WHILE MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND
   TO LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT...A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING
   SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.   

   FURTHER WEST ACROSS NRN MS...LINGERING CLOUDINESS HAS DELAYED
   DESTABILIZATION AND SFC-BASED INITIATION...BUT CONTINUED HEATING
   THROUGH THE DAY COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE VORT
   MAX ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED
   AS WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE ACROSS AL...WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW WEAK
   SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. 

   DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE
   THREAT...WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   ..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 08/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32468472 32728646 33068884 33129003 33359084 33819084
               34219061 34549032 34859004 34958870 34918724 34898662
               34638587 34128528 32468472 

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Page last modified: August 22, 2015
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