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Mesoscale Discussion 1731
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MN...CNTRL/NRN IA...FAR ERN SD....FAR
   NERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 221913Z - 222015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL MN SWD INTO NWRN IA. LARGE HAIL...DMGG
   WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY
   BE ISSUED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW EROSION OF PERSISTENT
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER HAS OCCURRED FROM MSP
   SWD...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S AMIDST
   UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S DEWPOINTS. WHILE PRIMARY MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
   ACCOMPANYING FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE STILL POSITIONED W OF THE
   REGION...A SEPARATE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MOISTENING/ASCENT WAS NOTED
   IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS...AND MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...BUT IS
   STILL CAPPED PER 19Z MPX SOUNDING. HOWEVER...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING
   AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE
   AREA...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY INTO
   THE LATE AFTERNOON.

   STRENGTHENING WIND LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS AMIDST A 50 KT LLJ /PER
   MSP VWP DATA/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED DISCRETE OR CLUSTER
   SUPERCELL MODES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND
   GUSTS...AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
   MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 08/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45389252 45959372 45849709 43879751 42279714 41499564
               41639333 41869310 45389252 

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Page last modified: August 22, 2015
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