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Mesoscale Discussion 1731
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN SD...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 190729Z - 190900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK COULD PERSIST
   THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS
   PROGRESSING E/NE FROM N-CNTRL SD.

   DISCUSSION...CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS HAS SUPPORTED A
   FLARE-UP IN INTENSITY OF A CLUSTER ALONG THE CORSON/DEWEY COUNTY
   LINE IN N-CNTRL SD. RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION IS QUITE
   ELEVATED...ROOTED BETWEEN 700-650 MB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
   MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND A 12K FT CLOUD BASE SAMPLED BY KMBG AT 0712Z.
   WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER LIKELY EXHIBIT MODEST
   SPEED SHEAR PER BIS VWP DATA AOA 3 KM AGL...FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AMIDST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH
   WEAKER DOWNSTREAM LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY/SHEAR...OVERALL SETUP APPEARS
   UNLIKELY TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS BEYOND ABOUT 09Z.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 09/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45690083 46130036 46399919 46299855 45989791 45669786
               45419811 45299850 45159903 45089952 45080010 45140046
               45240079 45690083 

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Page last modified: September 19, 2014
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