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Mesoscale Discussion 1732
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0537 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN ND / EXTREME NWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192237Z - 192330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. 
   PERHAPS A LOCALIZED MARGINAL HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT COULD
   EXIST FOR A FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 998 MB
   LOW INVOF THE ND/MN/MB BORDER AND A NARROW PLUME OF LOWER 60S
   DEWPOINTS EXTENDS NWD FROM SERN ND THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. 
   MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /1000-2000 J PER KG SBCAPE/ ACCORDING
   TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN A UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME WILL
   SUPPORT SOME STORM INTENSIFICATION.  AS A RESULT...PERHAPS A
   STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINAL HAIL/STRONG WIND
   GUST THREAT.

   ..SMITH/GOSS.. 09/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...

   LAT...LON   48429639 48799782 49019785 48999497 48639508 48429552
               48429639 

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Page last modified: September 19, 2014
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