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Mesoscale Discussion 1734
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN NEB / NWRN IA / EXTREME SERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 200334Z - 200530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY ISOLATED/LOCALIZED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL
   ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE GREATEST SEVERE
   THREAT WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS --SOME OF WHICH WERE
   SUPERCELLS-- GROWING UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM
   EXTREME NERN NEB NEWD INTO FAR S-CNTRL MN.  SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
   KFSD VAD DATA SHOW THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT NEARING THE NWWD-MOVING
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THE SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS.  MORE
   SPECIFICALLY...KFSD VAD DATA SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT /I.E. NWLY WINDS/
   2 KM DEEP.  AS WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE EFFECTIVE FRONT
   CONTINUE TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE REGION...CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH
   AND A LESS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN
   OVERALL LESSENING IN THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.

   ..SMITH/GOSS.. 09/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42709710 43379586 43519456 43339419 43039417 42409586
               42309707 42709710 

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Page last modified: September 20, 2014
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