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Mesoscale Discussion 1734
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MN AND FAR NWRN WI

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 498...

   VALID 222242Z - 230015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 498 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS WW 498 OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO
   WATCH. NRN PORTIONS OF WW 498 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF CURRENT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE.

   DISCUSSION...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
   AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
   HAS HAMPERED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON.
   SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO EXCEED THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THIS
   REGION...AND EVEN WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING SOMEWHAT
   WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MLCAPE ESTIMATES FROM RAP
   MESOANALYSIS RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW
   498...TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS FAR NRN MN. THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE
   FORMED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG A
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE HAVE NOT INCREASED GREATLY IN
   INTENSITY...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   WITH NWD EXTENT. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE GREATEST CHANCE
   FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
   TORNADO WATCH /RED HATCHED AREA IN GRAPHIC ABOVE/ WHERE THE BEST
   COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND OCCURRENCES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO.

   ..GLEASON.. 08/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   49039712 49059526 49449518 49389476 48789444 48669292
               48299174 46149154 46179407 46169622 47179649 48069702
               49039712 

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Page last modified: August 23, 2015
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