Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1736
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1736 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201716Z - 201815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
   THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 40-50 KT INTO PARTS OF
   MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL POSSIBLE.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 19Z.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER ERN ND ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS
   ACTIVITY IS WITHIN THE REGION OF FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COMPACT UPPER VORTICITY MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   MOVING SEWD INTO SWRN MANITOBA AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...AND WITHIN THE
   PRONOUNCED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG NWLY UPPER LEVEL JET. 
   DESPITE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH CAPE REACHING AROUND 500
   J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
   WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS CONSISTENT WITH NAM NEST/ESRL AND NCEP HRRR/NSSL WRF
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SERN ND INTO
   WEST CENTRAL/SWRN MN WHERE TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE INCREASING
   UPDRAFT STRENGTH AT THIS TIME.  PRONOUNCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO
   SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP AS
   ACTIVITY MOVES EWD/SEWD AT 40-50 KT...WITH STRONGER CELLS/SEGMENTS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 19Z.

   ..WEISS/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   47949728 48249680 48269617 48189565 48049514 47699445
               47019337 46219299 45499318 44189406 44309549 44879677
               45879767 47949728 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 20, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities