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Mesoscale Discussion 1736
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN / NERN IA / W-CNTRL AND SWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 222312Z - 230015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
   TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS
   EVENING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH
   TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 497.

   DISCUSSION...INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT /DCVA/ RELATED TO THE
   VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A
   GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THE
   LEADING EDGE OF THE MORE RECENT STORMS EXTENDING FROM WASECA COUNTY
   IN S-CNTRL MN TO HANCOCK COUNTY IN N-CNTRL IA AS OF 23Z. 
   EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT STORM MOTIONS --235/35 KT-- SUGGESTS THAT
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE ERN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 497 BY ABOUT
   00Z.  

   WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STEADILY STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE
   SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH /REF. CURRENT MPX VAD/...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR
   SURFACE-BASED PARCELS OWING TO A GENERALLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
   EWD EXTENT.  WHILE SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY OCCUR
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS VIA HORIZONTAL ADVECTION...THIS PROCESS
   WILL BE OFFSET BY THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...YIELDING LITTLE NET CHANGE TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION.

   ASSUMING CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS PERSIST...A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE THERMODYNAMIC CONCERNS HIGHLIGHTED
   ABOVE.  HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS INTENSIFY...AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR
   EXISTS TO FOSTER SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES AND AN ATTENDANT GREATER
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  THIS LATTER SCENARIO WOULD NECESSITATE MORE
   SERIOUS CONSIDERATION FOR A WATCH.

   ..MEAD.. 08/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43709296 44019298 44129252 44349227 44499203 44319093
               43969057 43019041 42689075 42539142 42519214 42569258
               42759280 42979290 43709296 

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