Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1737
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1737 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA TO
   NORTHERN KS/NORTHWEST MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 499...

   VALID 222321Z - 230045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE MAIN SUPERCELL-RELATED LARGE HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL
   EXISTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND NEARBY NORTHEAST KS/FAR
   SOUTHWEST IA/FAR NORTHWEST MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS AND A LIMITED HAIL/TORNADO RISK ELSEWHERE WITHIN TORNADO WATCH
   499...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z.

   DISCUSSION...AN EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
   STEADILY MERGE WITH/OVERTAKE CONVECTION NEAR THE LINCOLN/OMAHA NEB
   AREAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL IA AS OF 6PM CDT/23Z. SOME
   DAMAGING WIND AND A LIMITED HAIL/TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH THE
   LINEAR/CLUSTERED CONVECTION ACROSS IA...WHILE THE MAIN
   SUPERCELL-RELATED LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH
   PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND NEARBY
   NORTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST IA/FAR NORTHWEST MO...PRIOR TO THIS
   CONVECTION BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT. SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   AND CONTEMPORARY MODIFICATIONS TO AN EARLIER 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
   FROM OMAHA SUGGESTS THAT PRE-FRONTAL MLCAPE IS IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG
   RANGE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
   NEB/SOUTHWEST IA...WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WIND PROFILES FOR A FEW
   SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY
   TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS NEAR/POSSIBLY AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH NEAR-FRONTAL FOCUSED/INCREASINGLY LINEAR
   CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY SCENARIO BY MID/LATE-EVENING.

   ..GUYER.. 08/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39419865 40029845 40519710 42189505 41799303 40609397
               39429473 38699615 39209781 39419865 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 23, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities