MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...FAR SW KS...WRN OK/TX
   PANHANDLES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 311928Z - 312130Z
   
   STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF CO AND NERN
   NM AND MOVE SEWD OVER THE PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY...AND A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.
   
   A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS
   MULTIPLE EMBEDDED UPPER FEATURES MOVE EWD ACROSS UT AND WRN CO.
   STORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SHOULD
   EVENTUALLY SURVIVE INTO THE PLAINS AS CAPPING IS REMOVED. OTHER
   AREAS OF CU WERE INCREASING NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE. MID 50S TO NEAR
   60 F DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER ERN
   PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
   
   RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY LONG HODOGRAPHS
   DUE TO 20-30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LONG LIVED
   CORES WITH LARGE HAIL WITH MAX SIZE 1.00-1.75 IN. FARTHER E INTO WRN
   KS AND OK/TX...A RICHER AXIS OF MOISTURE EXISTS...AS WELL AS A
   STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THUS SHEAR. THEREFORE...FAR ERN
   CO...WRN KS...AND THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE
   SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT...AND ANY CELLS MOVING INTO THAT AREA MAY
   INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/31/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   36590529 37950534 38920472 39570365 39610235 39280216
               39230204 38280161 37290122 36750125 36250142 35390179
               35100228 35100279 35090459 35700544 36590529