MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0411 AM CDT WED JUL 09 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN OK...OZARKS OF SRN MO AND NRN AR.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 090911Z - 091145Z
   
   HEAVY RAIN HAZARD WILL INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS
   OVER OZARK PLATEAU ON BOTH SIDES OF MO/AR BORDER...AND SHOULD
   PERSIST OVER NERN OK E OF I-35...WITH SOME SWD SHIFT LIKELY INTO
   MORE OF TUL METRO AREA.  RAIN RATES LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR SHOULD
   BECOME MORE COMMON FROM W-E...AS WILL THREAT FOR REPEATED PASSAGE OF
   HEAVIEST RAIN RATES IN A FEW LOCALES WITHIN BROADER PRECIP BAND.
   
   SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ALREADY EVIDENT OVER NRN OK ARE EXPECTED TO
   SHIFT EWD ALONG THEIR AXIS...WHICH RUNS PARALLEL WITH DEEP-LAYER
   MEAN WIND VECTOR.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NET INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE
   INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER THAT PRESENTLY OBSERVED IN OZARKS...AND
   MAINTENANCE OF INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN REGIME ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER
   NERN OK.  VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOW CONFLUENT 20-25 KT 850 MB FLOW
   ACROSS NRN OK ATTM.  THIS CORRESPONDS WELL TO AREA OF ENHANCED
   CONVECTIVE PRECIP...NRN RIM OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND
   AXIS OF MAXIMIZED 700-500 MB LAYER UVV EACH EVIDENT IN SHORT-TERM
   RUC GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS LATEST NAM-KF RUNS.  THIS REGIME
   REASONABLY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO NWRN AR/SWRN MO AS UNDERLYING
   850 MB FLOW VEERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN OK DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS. 
   HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY SWD FROM PRESENT
   LOCATION OF PRECIP PLUME AS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOES
   LIKEWISE...BRINGING MORE OF OK FROM SWO-TUL AREAS EWD BENEATH
   STRONGER CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC.  MUCAPES GENERALLY
   1000-1500 J/KG WILL CHARACTERIZE PRECONVECTIVE/INFLOW AIR
   MASS...ALONG WITH SOME 2-2.25 INCH PW VALUES...BASED ON MODIFIED
   RUC/NAM-KF SOUNDINGS AND GPS DERIVED OBSERVATIONS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/09/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...
   
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