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Mesoscale Discussion 1737
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...FAR NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201807Z - 202030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS
   NWRN MO INTO NERN KS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY BE EXTENDED WWD AT
   20Z...WITH WATCH ISSUANCE CONDITIONAL ON STORM COVERAGE.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS NEAR AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
   SEWD OUT OF NEB AND NOW INTO NERN KS WHERE LARGE HAIL IS ONGOING.
   THESE CELLS INITIALLY BEGAN A BIT ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY
   FEED FROM THE W AND PER 12Z OAX SOUNDING...BUT MODIFIED TOP SOUNDING
   WITH MID 80S TEMPERATURES SUGGEST STORMS ARE NOW SURFACE BASED...AND
   AS SUCH...WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL TO TURN RIGHT RELATIVE TO
   PREVIOUS SEWD MOTION. VEERING FLOW ALOFT ATOP SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   WHICH CONTINUE TO WARM RESULTS IN A SUFFICIENT WIND PROFILE FOR
   SUPERCELLS. WITH TIME...THE EXISTING CELL MAY BEGIN TO BOW AS MORE
   OUTFLOW IS PRODUCED...WITH VEERING STORM MOTION TOWARD THE S. AN
   EXPANDING CU FIELD ALONG I-70 FURTHER SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS IS
   BECOMING PRIMED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

   IF SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...THEN A WATCH MAY BE
   ISSUED.

   ..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39499600 39769599 39899571 39909549 39389411 38939391
               38449394 38089424 38019495 38099578 38259624 38709625
               39109601 39499600 

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Page last modified: September 20, 2014
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