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Mesoscale Discussion 1738
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN AR...NERN LA...NRN/CNTRL
   MS...FAR SRN MIDDLE TN...NRN/CNTRL AL...AND FAR NWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 230000Z - 230200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
   EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND REMNANT MCS/MCV OVER CNTRL/ERN AR. A
   SEPARATE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AL ALONG
   WHAT APPEARS TO BE ARCING OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE
   DAY. AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS HAVE
   ALLOWED MLCAPE TO GENERALLY INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG
   RANGE...WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HINDERING GREATER
   DESTABILIZATION. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE
   REGION...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT HAVE ALLOWED
   SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FORMED TO ACQUIRE SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   /REFERENCE RECENT GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORT FROM IN PANOLA COUNTY
   MS/. WHILE VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG PER AREA
   RADAR VWPS AND PARTIAL 00Z BMX SOUNDING...A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO
   MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN/CNTRL MS. WITH THE
   ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING UNDERWAY AND CURRENT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
   NEED A WW.

   ..GLEASON/MEAD.. 08/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   32839172 33779174 34649118 34979014 35018855 35028731
               35378651 35458589 35428503 34528503 32958737 32078989
               32249117 32839172 

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Page last modified: August 23, 2015
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