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Mesoscale Discussion 1739
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1739
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

   Areas affected...portions of southern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232058Z - 232230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat may spread into portions of southern VA in
   the next 1-2 hours. Given a lack of stronger instability, confidence
   is low in convection maintaining organized severe threat. Trends
   will be monitored closely for possible watch issuance in the next
   hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...The bowing segment of line of convection moving east
   across western NC will continue to track northeast late this
   afternoon. Several severe and tornado reports have been associated
   with this convection across western NC and portions of Upstate SC.
   However, it is uncertain how far northeast severe potential will be
   maintained given very weak instability across southern VA where
   surface heating has not been as strong and surface dewpoints are
   lower than further to the southwest. That being said, strong deep
   layer shear profiles could support strong wind gusts and perhaps
   some rotating structures if the surging line can maintain
   organization. This area will be monitored closely for possible watch
   issuance by 22z.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 10/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36658100 36968095 37328055 37618000 37737970 37797937
               37667883 37407853 37017860 36647891 36477920 36528037
               36518072 36658100 

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