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Mesoscale Discussion 1739
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NV...SWRN UT AND NWRN AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 202040Z - 202315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH A
   FEW PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PRODUCING LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
   PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.00 INCH. STRONG HEATING BENEATH COOL
   PROFILES ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND UPSLOPE ON S FACES IS HELPING
   SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE MAIN ZONE OF
   STORMS EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NV SEWD ACROSS SWRN UT AND NWRN AZ WITHIN
   THE INSTABILITY AXIS. OTHER STORMS WERE INCREASING ALONG THE CA/NV
   BORDER...AND THESE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE NWD ACROSS NV WITH
   TIME WITH SOME WIND THREAT GIVEN A DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN
   PLACE. IN GENERAL...MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT
   GIVEN CELLULAR STORM MODE AS A RESULT OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

   ..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...

   LAT...LON   36021638 37411837 39161931 40401881 40761682 40431572
               39431391 38101266 36871235 35701208 35531267 35281439
               35461509 36021638 

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Page last modified: September 20, 2014
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