|Mesoscale Discussion 1739|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1739
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017
Areas affected...portions of southern VA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 232058Z - 232230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe threat may spread into portions of southern VA in
the next 1-2 hours. Given a lack of stronger instability, confidence
is low in convection maintaining organized severe threat. Trends
will be monitored closely for possible watch issuance in the next
hour or so.
DISCUSSION...The bowing segment of line of convection moving east
across western NC will continue to track northeast late this
afternoon. Several severe and tornado reports have been associated
with this convection across western NC and portions of Upstate SC.
However, it is uncertain how far northeast severe potential will be
maintained given very weak instability across southern VA where
surface heating has not been as strong and surface dewpoints are
lower than further to the southwest. That being said, strong deep
layer shear profiles could support strong wind gusts and perhaps
some rotating structures if the surging line can maintain
organization. This area will be monitored closely for possible watch
issuance by 22z.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36658100 36968095 37328055 37618000 37737970 37797937
37667883 37407853 37017860 36647891 36477920 36528037
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