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Mesoscale Discussion 1739
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0806 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN HALF OF MN/NORTHERN IA TO WESTERN WI

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 497...498...

   VALID 230106Z - 230230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 497...498...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THE
   REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MN/NORTHERN IA
   INTO WESTERN WI. TORNADO WATCHES 497/498 CAN CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED
   WITH THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
   ISSUANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI/FAR NORTHEAST MN IS
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...NEAR/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT...MULTIPLE NORTH-SOUTH BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING EARLY
   THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF MN AND NORTH-CENTRAL IA/FAR
   WESTERN WI AS OF 8PM CDT/01Z. LARGER-SCALE FORCING AND
   DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
   WITH AID OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
   DAKOTAS...WITH 35-45 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH AS PER
   RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM DULUTH/MINNEAPOLIS. 

   HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER REMAINS PREVALENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY COOLING OWING TO
   PRIOR CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES. WHILE ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS/BRIEF TORNADO/SMALL HAIL COULD YET OCCUR WITH AN EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELL OR TWO AND/OR LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS...THE AFOREMENTIONED
   THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS/WEAKNESSES SHOULD KEEP LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

   ..GUYER.. 08/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42639415 44329351 45499331 47919393 48129264 47479156
               45659115 43939147 42489307 42639415 

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Page last modified: August 23, 2015
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