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Mesoscale Discussion 1739
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN VA AND NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 281844Z - 282015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING A RISK FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...IS INCREASING. WW ISSUANCE
   IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE AN
   INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE MCD AREA AS FILTERED DIURNAL
   HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG/S OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   WRN NC NNEWD INTO PARTS OF SRN/ERN VA. WHILE SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE
   RELATIVELY WEAK ATTM PER 18Z SFC OBSERVATIONS AND AREA VWPS...THEY
   ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW OVER IND CONTINUES
   MOVING SWD. WINDS DO STRENGTHEN/VEER WITH HEIGHT AT MID-LEVELS...
   WITH LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
   GENERALLY RANGE FROM 35-45 KT. A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ALONG
   WITH SOME SFC HEATING HAS ALLOWED MLCAPE TO INCREASE BETWEEN
   1000-1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND PERHAPS BOWING
   SEGMENTS...WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 09/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35758112 37157921 37837801 37827709 37497631 37067627
               36527656 35097895 35187998 35758112 

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Page last modified: September 28, 2016
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