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Mesoscale Discussion 1740
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0849 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST
   MO/PORTIONS OF KS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 499...

   VALID 230149Z - 230345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHEAST NEB INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA...BUT SHOULD
   PERSIST/POSSIBLY SPATIALLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS
   NORTHEAST KS/NEARBY NORTHWEST MO AND POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL
   KS. TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z. A NEW/REPLACEMENT WATCH
   IS POSSIBLE /40 PERCENT/ LATER THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
   OF EAST/CENTRAL KS AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MO.

   DISCUSSION...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE ACROSS
   SOUTHERN IA/EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRIOR
   CONVECTION/NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES AHEAD OF THE
   EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT STRONGER
   STORMS HAVE PERSISTED FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO FAR NORTHEAST KS
   AS OF 830 PM CDT/130Z...WITH EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS
   HAVING BEEN OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE WARM-SECTOR
   CAPPING/BOUNDARY-LAYER INHIBITION WAS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA. AS SUCH...DEEPER CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
   DECIDEDLY FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AND
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IS UNLIKELY. A
   FRONT-RELATED LINEAR-TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD THUS REMAIN
   PREVALENT...PARTICULARLY AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD
   LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. IN SPITE OF BACKED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
   AND MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTIVE MODE
   WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK THE REMAINDER OF THE
   EVENING. EVEN SO...ISOLATED BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS IN THE SHORT-TERM...BUT
   COULD POTENTIALLY EXPAND INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
   AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MO LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A NEW /OR
   REPLACEMENT/ WATCH IS POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING.

   ..GUYER.. 08/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   41689470 41959356 41249298 38999443 37779625 38099840
               39289891 39869665 40809553 41689470 

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Page last modified: August 23, 2015
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