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Mesoscale Discussion 1741
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS TO NORTHERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 230453Z - 230700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
   OK. WHILE A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT...CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...ALONG//BEHIND A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE COLD
   FRONT...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS AS OF 05Z WILL LIKELY
   TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY MERGE/POTENTIALLY
   GROW UPSCALE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN OK. IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA...EPISODIC SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A POSSIBILITY EVEN WITH
   A RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE
   OVERALL SEVERE RISK MAY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
   OVERNIGHT.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38669914 39149782 39439647 38669586 38049528 36839562
               36969793 38669914 

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Page last modified: August 23, 2015
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