Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1741
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1741 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0422 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL INDIANA...NWRN OH...SERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 202122Z - 202315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE RISK OF AT LEAST
   ISOLATED SVR TSTMS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM SWRN LOWER
   MI SWWD INTO CNTRL IL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD/ESEWD. THE ACTIVITY
   WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO FORWARD PROPAGATE OUTSIDE OF ONGOING WW 504
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...INTO AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
   MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY -- STRONGEST FROM CNTRL INDIANA
   WWD/SWWD WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
   PRESENCE OF 35-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL WLYS -- WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
   THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER PER VWPS -- SUGGESTS THAT THE ONGOING
   CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT RISKS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE
   THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY MAY MITIGATE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR
   RISK FROM EVOLVING...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39639078 40108854 40408676 40998492 42208458 42248341
               41178374 40208462 39388693 38989004 39639078 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 20, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities