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Mesoscale Discussion 1742
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0449 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN/SRN KS AND WRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 202149Z - 210015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS THE
   REGION...AS THERE WILL EXIST SOME RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR
   TSTMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF A MORE ORGANIZED SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL
   WERE TO EVOLVE...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE AGITATED CU ALONG A SFC
   WIND-SHIFT AXIS ANALYZED FROM N OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA SWWD TOWARD
   GARDEN CITY...WITH DEEPER CONVECTIVE PLUMES EVOLVING ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF NERN KS. THE AIR MASS S OF THE WIND-SHIFT AXIS IS CHARACTERIZED
   BY MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY...AIDED BY RELATIVELY MOIST
   CONDITIONS IN THE PBL -- ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF INTERSTATE 35
   WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70F. THE ICT AND
   TWX VWPS SAMPLE 25-30 KT OF MID-LEVEL NLYS/NWLYS OFFERING SUFFICIENT
   DEEP SHEAR FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING MULTICELL CLUSTERS SWD/SEWD INTO
   SRN KS/WRN MO. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ONLY
   MODEST...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   SUPPORTING ROBUST UPDRAFT MASS FLUXES WITH SOME RISK FOR SVR
   HAIL/WIND. IF COLD POOLS WERE TO AGGREGATE AND SUPPORT A MORE
   ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...A GREATER-COVERAGE SVR-TSTM RISK
   COULD EVOLVE -- AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF SERN/S-CNTRL KS/FAR WRN MO. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37829973 38909760 39079527 38399398 37209481 37129883
               37829973 

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Page last modified: September 21, 2014
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