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Mesoscale Discussion 1742
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0431 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MO THROUGH EXTREME NERN OK AND NWRN
   THROUGH NCNTRL ARKANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 230931Z - 231030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW INSTANCES
   OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING FROM
   SWRN MO THROUGH EXTREME NERN OK INTO NWRN AND NCNTRL ARKANSAS.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS
   FROM SWRN MO THROUGH EXTREME NERN OK MOVING SEWD AT 30-35 KT. THE
   NEAR-SFC LAYER IS MOIST BUT STABLE. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY
   REMAINS ABOVE THE MODEST SFC INVERSION WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE
   INDICATED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. A 25-30 KT SWLY LLJ
   INTERACTING WITH THE SEWD-ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT SEWD DEVELOPMENT OF MCS NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
   VEER AND WEAKEN WITH TIME WHICH /IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RELATIVELY
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING
   TREND BY 14Z. IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A
   THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS RECENTLY REPORTED
   BY A JOPLIN MO SFC OBSERVATION.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 08/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36779409 37009337 37349278 36479172 35629161 35319317
               36519486 36779409 

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Page last modified: August 23, 2015
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