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Mesoscale Discussion 1743
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0654 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN ARKANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500...

   VALID 231154Z - 231300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
   ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR
   ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW
   THAT STORMS WILL REINTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING
   SEWD FROM NWRN AR THROUGH NERN OK ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
   AT 30-35 KT. STORMS OVER ARKANSAS HAVE SHOWN A CONSIDERABLE
   WEAKENING TREND DURING THE PAST HOUR. THIS TREND IS POSSIBLY A
   RESULT OF STRONGER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...BUT ALSO DUE TO A
   TENDENCY FOR LLJ TO VEER TO A WLY AND WNWLY DIRECTION RESULTING IN
   WEAKER CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN THIS
   TENDENCY AND TIME OF DAY...CONFIDENCE IN REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS
   LOW...AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 13Z IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

   ..DIAL.. 08/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35869416 35729311 36129206 35899169 35169288 35329397
               35869416 

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Page last modified: August 23, 2015
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