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Mesoscale Discussion 1743
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0500 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 202200Z - 210000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME RISK FOR DMGG WIND
   GUSTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD
   REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AT THE LEADING EDGE
   OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT CROSSING THE AREA PER RECENT
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUD COVERAGE IN MANY AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
   THE DAY HAS STUNTED DIURNAL GAINS IN BUOYANCY...THOUGH POCKETS OF
   INSOLATION HAVE LOCALLY STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
   THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION APPROACHING THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN.
   WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND 40 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR
   SAMPLED BY THE DTX VWP...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
   AT LEAST ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LACK OF
   STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR-TSTM
   RISK FROM EVOLVING...THOUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
   FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42888459 43948329 43788270 42968250 42358354 42508453
               42888459 

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Page last modified: September 21, 2014
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