Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1744
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1744 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NRN IND...NWRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231712Z - 231845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER MI INTO NRN IND AND NWRN OH.
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   DISCUSSION...A PRE-FRONTAL AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS HAS
   ENTERED WRN LOWER MI...WITH TRAILING SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
   MI INTO CNTRL IL. MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
   LINE INTO NRN IND...AS TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
   LOWER 80S ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500 J/KG. GRADUAL
   INTENSIFICATION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE IS POSSIBLE OVER
   THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...WITH THE PREDOMINANT THREAT BEING STRONG TO
   LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...GIVEN 20-40 KT OF LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW
   OBSERVED IN GRR VWP DATA. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
   PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAKES WATCH ISSUANCE UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 08/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   42618318 41018399 40398563 40608666 40978726 42208628
               43218570 44088546 44548528 44538405 43748311 43448303
               42618318 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 23, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities