Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1746
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1746 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0555 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND WRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 202255Z - 210030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
   HAIL WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF INSOLATION-ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
   RATES IS DRIVING MARGINAL BUOYANCY IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT
   MAX ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS MANITOBA. THIS IS ENCOURAGING THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   SPREADING SEWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVX VWP SAMPLES 30-40 KT
   OF NWLY FLOW IN THE 1-4-KM LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SUSTAINED
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR.
   A MARGINALLY SVR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
   STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM
   POTENTIAL. THE RISK FOR STRONG STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
   THE PBL EXPERIENCES AN INCREASE IN STATIC STABILITY.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...

   LAT...LON   48939797 48939711 47939648 46959588 46689703 47779802
               48659832 48939797 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities