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Mesoscale Discussion 1746
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OH/SOUTHEAST LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 232207Z - 240000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SMALL HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
   MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OH THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING...WITH A LIMITED SEVERE RISK ALSO ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI
   IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE ANTICIPATED MARGINAL NATURE OF THE OVERALL
   SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
   NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OH THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS ARE
   OCCURRING WITHIN A SPATIALLY NARROW/MODEST MOISTURE-QUALITY WARM
   SECTOR...WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 80S F SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
   LOWER/MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS 750-1250
   J/KG MLCAPE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR
   THE NOSE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-SPREADING MID/HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX
   WITHIN THE BASE OF A NORTHWEST ONTARIO-CENTERED UPPER TROUGH. WHILE
   PREFRONTAL CLOUD COVER AND MODEST BUOYANCY/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE LIMITING FACTORS...STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR/GLANCING
   FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY SUSTAIN SOME STRONGER STORMS THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING. 

   FARTHER NORTH...A LIMITED SEVERE RISK MAY ALSO EXIST IN THE
   SHORT-TERM ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI. WHILE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL RISK AS PER WSR-88D
   VWP DATA FROM DETROIT...AGAIN...PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER AND MODEST
   MOISTURE /LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS/ ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE
   LIMITING FACTORS.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

   LAT...LON   40908497 41538447 42328371 42898324 42968247 41968277
               41458193 40728189 40218318 40428473 40908497 

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Page last modified: August 24, 2015
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