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Mesoscale Discussion 1747
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NH...CNTRL MA...NERN CT AND NRN RI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251706Z - 251900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
   AFTERNOON. WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED
   COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN BELT
   OF PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS LIFTING NWD THROUGH NH. STRONGEST STORM WAS
   LOCATED OVER SRN NH AS OF 17Z WHERE SOME WEAK ROTATION WAS ALSO
   INDICATED. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS CLOUD BREAKS
   IN THIS REGION PROMOTING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
   HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST DUE TO WEAK
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
   INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST
   /30-35 KT/ EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. BOTH MULTICELLS AND SOME MARGINAL
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL THREAT WILL PROBABLY
   REMAIN LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE
   700-500 MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT INTENSITIES.
   NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
   STORMS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STORMS MOVE
   NWD AND INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS SRN NH.

   ..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 08/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   42637263 43327218 43617180 43707110 43117096 41997137
               41887275 42637263 

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Page last modified: August 25, 2015
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