Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1747
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1747 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0656 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MO...CNTRL/NRN/WRN IL...SERN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 202356Z - 210200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBS AND PLAN-VIEW DEPICTIONS OF VWP DATA INDICATE
   WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   AREA...ENCOURAGING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE TOWERS PER VIS IMAGERY. SOME
   OF THESE TOWERS APPEAR TO BE GLACIATING IN NRN MO TO CNTRL
   IL...WHERE STRONGER BUOYANCY EXISTS OWING TO THE LACK OF ANTECEDENT
   CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND IN PROXIMITY TO RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. WITH MLCAPE OF 
   1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A STRONG
   TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
   SUCH POTENTIAL WOULD BE AUGMENTED BY 40-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OFFERED BY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS.
   HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39159274 40059376 41699143 41588889 40898808 39658892
               39159274 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities