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Mesoscale Discussion 1748
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0715 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN OH...PORTIONS OF SERN LOWER MI...FAR ERN
   INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505...

   VALID 210015Z - 210115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID
   PORTIONS OF WW 505...AND THE RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS MAY EXTEND
   FARTHER S.

   DISCUSSION...BANDS OF OCCASIONALLY BOWING CONVECTION AT THE LEADING
   EDGE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CROSSING SERN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH
   MAY SUPPORT A DMGG-WIND RISK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE FLOW
   ALOFT REMAINS MODERATE. HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A PROPENSITY
   FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED AS IT ENCOUNTERS
   A RELATIVELY DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH THE SVR-TSTM
   RISK LIKELY LESSENING AS THE STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS REMAINING VALID
   PORTIONS OF WW 505. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO ADVANCE FROM
   E-CNTRL INDIANA TO W-CNTRL OH WITH A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ..COHEN.. 09/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   40298508 41948343 43278310 43278246 41738297 41268239
               40318375 40298508 

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Page last modified: September 21, 2014
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