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Mesoscale Discussion 1749
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1749
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270737Z - 270930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY MAINTAIN THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL SD.  FARTHER N...A SECOND AREA OF STORMS SHOULD ALSO
   PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS /UNTIL 10-11Z/ ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
   SD...WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TENDING TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS
   CURRENT TRENDS SHOW A WEAKENING IN REFLECTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...AT 07Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED TWO AREAS IN
   CENTRAL SD WITH SUSTAINED STORMS...1/ IN JONES/MELLETTE COUNTIES IN
   SOUTH-CENTRAL SD WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEX...AND 2/ IN CORSON TO WALWORTH COUNTIES...WHILE STORMS ARCED
   SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THESE TWO STRONGER STORM AREAS.  THIS
   ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN A NNW-SSE ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF DEEP-LAYER
   MOISTURE-FLUX CONVERGENCE WHERE THE AXIS OF GREATER MOISTURE AND
   STRONGEST INSTABILITY TENDS TO RESIDE TO THE WEST OF THE MO RIVER.

   DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SD DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT TO EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE WY SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  MEANWHILE...THE
   STORMS IN SOUTHERN SD WILL BE FURTHER AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA WITHIN
   THE NOSE OF A 40-KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD.  THESE
   STORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SD SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND
   COVERAGE BY 12Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. FARTHER N...THE STORMS IN CORSON
   TO WALWORTH COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING W-E ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SD FROM A SURFACE LOW IN
   SOUTHEAST MT.  ANY STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST SHOULD DECREASE IN
   INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY EAST OF THE MO RIVER WHERE MOISTURE
   CONTENT AND INSTABILITY DECREASE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43730083 44270048 44910062 45200109 45580165 45800162
               45810027 45249959 43859902 43259901 43069913 43000007
               43040073 43130093 43500092 43730083 

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Page last modified: August 27, 2015
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