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Mesoscale Discussion 1750
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 210033Z - 210230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
   ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL CA
   VALLEY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL
   CYCLONE ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL CA...WITH A LOBE OF
   IMPLIED LIFT INTERACTING WITH A REGIME OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT INVOF
   THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS. THIS CONTINUES TO ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SIERRA CREST AMIDST STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
   RATES. CAPPI DATA AT 7 AND 9 KM INDICATE OCCASIONALLY MORE ROBUST
   CONVECTIVE CORES...PERHAPS AIDED BY 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS IN
   THE NERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. ASSOCIATED DEEP SHEAR MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH
   LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. A MARGINALLY SVR
   TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE LACK OF MORE ROBUST
   MOISTURE IN THE PBL IS TEMPERING BUOYANCY SUCH THAT A GREATER
   SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REGARDLESS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS
   MAY BE STEERED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL CA
   VALLEY ESPECIALLY N OF FRESNO.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...

   LAT...LON   35641845 36821975 37422091 38462152 39072104 38781997
               35921759 35341760 35641845 

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Page last modified: September 21, 2014
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