Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1750
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1750 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0536 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN NEB...EASTERN KS...AND NORTHEAST
   OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271036Z - 271300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
   ACROSS EASTERN NEB...EASTERN KS...AND PERHAPS INTO NORTHEAST OK
   UNTIL ABOUT MID-MORNING /AROUND 15Z/.  STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS
   COULD PRODUCE A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE HAIL STONES /AT OR GREATER
   THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER/.  OVERALL SPATIOTEMPORAL LIMITATIONS IN THE
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...DESPITE THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT ALOFT...THE
   DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEB SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
   KS...AND ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED /AT THIS TIME/ FROM FRANKLIN TO
   ALLEN COUNTIES KS ARE BEING DRIVEN LARGELY BY LOW-LEVEL WAA. 
   ANALYSIS OF WSR-88D VADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INDICATED
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB/KS HAVE VEERED TO WLY AND WSWLY
   SINCE 06Z...WITH STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
   EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN VICINITY OF A N-S ORIENTED
   WARM FRONT AT 850 MB.  OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG
   AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS
   INCLUDING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.  THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES PER 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL.  INITIAL STORMS MAY HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL
   AS EVENTUAL STORM MERGERS/CLUSTERING MAY TEND TO REDUCE THE LARGER
   HAIL PRODUCTION.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED SEVERE-HAIL
   COVERAGE AND A RELATIVELY SHORTER TEMPORAL EXTENT FOR STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED.  THE LLJ WILL
   CONTINUE TO VEER TO WLY THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN
   EXPECTED EARLY DAY DECREASE IN SPEED.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A
   DIMINISHING TREND IN STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND 15Z...AS THE
   PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT WEAKENS.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   41809783 41879679 41109628 40109582 39159524 38269489
               37249486 36739502 36519581 36619626 37099657 37969668
               38769688 39959723 40999772 41809783 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 27, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities