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Mesoscale Discussion 1751
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272024Z - 272230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
   THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS...IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS.  IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
   NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
   POSSIBILITY.

   DISCUSSION...BENEATH WARM AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR WHICH
   HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS...DEEP
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
   ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. 
   HOWEVER...NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING A SOUTHEASTERLY
   COMPONENT...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES/HIGHER DEW POINTS...
   ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE MIXED
   LAYER CAPE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS HAS BECOME MODERATELY LARGE
   /ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J PER KG/.  

   ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
   APPROACHED THROUGH FURTHER LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
   WARMING...MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
   CONTRIBUTE TO STORM INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS MAY
   BE AIDED BY FORCING WITH ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE DIGGING EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WYOMING THROUGH THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME.

   ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF 30+ SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUBSTANTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND SHOULD
   BECOME INCREASINGLY SO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A
   BELT OF 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING THE
   REGION.  STORM COVERAGE REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION...BUT AT LEAST
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE...PERHAPS HAS EARLY AS 21-22Z
   TIME FRAME.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 08/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42580095 42939889 41359792 40819929 41619979 42580095 

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Page last modified: August 27, 2015
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