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Mesoscale Discussion 1751
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0834 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND ERN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 210134Z - 210400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES
   OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL EXIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
   HOWEVER...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE AND INDIANAPOLIS VWPS INDICATE A
   VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL...ASSOCIATED
   WITH A MODEST WAA PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER ROUND OF
   CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE INTERSTATE 70
   CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT
   UPTICK IN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CORES...LIKELY ROOTED ATOP THE
   COOL DOME DEPOSITED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY
   INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
   APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND SUPPORTS A FURTHER
   INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE 00Z ILX RAOB INDICATES
   AMPLE BUOYANCY FOR INFLOW BASED TO THE W/SW /MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
   AT ILX/...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS INTO THE LATE
   EVENING HOURS. AND...WITH AROUND 40 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR SAMPLED
   BY THE IND VWP...A FEW SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH MARGINALLY
   SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...GROWING NOCTURNAL MLCINH WILL LIKELY
   PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM OCCURRING.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   41168758 41498656 41428535 41188505 40618488 39698508
               39118655 39118830 40018823 41168758 

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Page last modified: September 21, 2014
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