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Mesoscale Discussion 1752
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 210555Z - 210730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED TREE DAMAGE WITH
   QLCS APPROACHING THE ERN SHORE OF LK MI.

   DISCUSSION...MINOR INTENSIFICATION AND SOLIDIFICATION OF
   HIGH-REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE RECENTLY OCCURRED WITH THE LONG-LIVED
   QLCS CROSSING SRN LK MI TO THE CHICAGOLAND AREA. 63-65 DEG F SURFACE
   DEW POINTS PERSIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...WITH MODIFIED
   00Z GRB/APX RAOBS SUPPORTIVE OF MEAGER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY
   /LARGELY AOB 500 J/KG/ AMIDST MODEST INHIBITION. WITH VERY STRONG
   SPEED SHEAR SAMPLED IN GRR VWP DATA /0-6 KM VALUES NEAR 70 KT/ AND
   CURRENT LINEAR MOTION AROUND 40 KT...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT 35-45
   KT WIND GUSTS SHOULD ACCOMPANY EMBEDDED BULGING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE
   LINE AS IT REACHES THE WRN LOWER MI LAKE SHORE.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 09/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   43878675 44388664 44618644 44638620 44608594 44408545
               43808513 42938520 41808596 41608667 41778727 42568680
               43338660 43878675 

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Page last modified: September 21, 2014
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