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Mesoscale Discussion 1753
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OH...WRN PA/NY...NRN WV...FAR WRN
   MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 211720Z - 211915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY/RADAR TRENDS SHOW STRENGTHENING
   UPDRAFTS/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WESTERN NEW YORK SOUTHWARD
   TO EASTERN OHIO/NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
   EARLIER PASSAGE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL
   MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER BUT ALSO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA. STILL...DIURNAL HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY
   LOWER 60S DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE
   BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF SOMEWHAT
   HIGHER INSTABILITY ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAL EXTENT TEMPERED BY
   CLOUD COVER AND ABSENCE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES. AS HEIGHT FALLS
   ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEVELOP
   EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...ONE OR MORE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL
   RESULT IN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO
   THE SURFACE FRONT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR LOCALIZED
   STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST-MOVING STORMS AS THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN
   THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..BUNTING/CARBIN.. 09/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
   CLE...

   LAT...LON   42707896 42947878 43287838 43537797 43617698 43717643
               44217597 44527533 44197494 43237552 42197644 41527727
               39807878 39197940 39068009 39098089 39158162 39398214
               39848202 40868096 41878013 42197951 42707896 

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Page last modified: September 21, 2014
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