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Mesoscale Discussion 1756
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1203 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE GA AND SC COASTAL PLAIN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 221703Z - 221900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS
   AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY
   WINDS...A FEW STRONG...WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
   THUNDERSTORMS. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
   UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
   AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
   CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES
   ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 1000 J PER KG WERE NOTED IN 16Z MESOANALYSIS.
   POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
   SBCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-30 KT SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND
   LONGEVITY OF ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BUT...LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
   PW VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE DCAPE COULD
   ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
   WHERE STORM/OUTFLOW MERGERS OCCUR. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUPPORT FOR A
   MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
   TIME.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 09/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31298124 31128157 31178232 31288266 31688307 31998304
               32258281 33028105 33248040 33397978 33337924 32897940
               32118046 31758083 31298124 

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Page last modified: September 22, 2014
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