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Mesoscale Discussion 1757
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 222048Z - 222245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   A BRIEF TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AS CELLS INITIATE AND STRENGTHEN. WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS AT 2030Z SHOWS A LEE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF
   THE FRONT RANGE WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD
   ACROSS ERN CO INTO FAR WRN NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
   UPPER 50S F. SFC TEMPS IN NERN CO ARE NOW IN THE MID 70S F WITH
   LOWER TO MID 80S REPORTED IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF SERN CO.
   AS RESULT...SBCAPE IS ESTIMATED ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
   CO WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMING OUT OF THE BASE OF
   THE TROUGH SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FRONT RANGE
   FOOTHILLS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR WHICH DEVELOPS
   STORMS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES THIS CONVECTION ONTO THE
   NERN PLAINS OF CO IN THE 22Z TO 23Z TIMEFRAME. IN ADDITION...THE
   LATEST WSR-88D VWP IN NERN CO SHOW SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE
   LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH 25 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
   WITH LARGE HAIL. IN THE CASE A SUPERCELL CAN ORGANIZE...A BRIEF
   TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS FAVORED AS
   IS SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS...THEN STRONG WIND
   GUSTS MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40820254 41070340 40940492 39900529 38270516 37850413
               38190246 39880225 40820254 

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Page last modified: September 22, 2014
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