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Mesoscale Discussion 1758
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 232048Z - 232215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...WITHIN A BROADER LEE TROUGH PRESENT OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS...20Z MESOANALYSIS REVEALED A NUMBER OF WEAK WIND SHIFTS
   ORIENTED IN A GENERAL W-E FASHION. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE
   PRIMARY N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WERE SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR DEEPENING
   CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE BOLSTERED BY DCVA
   ATTENDANT TO A COMPACT VORTICITY MAXIMUM SITUATED ALONG THE SD-NEB
   STATE LINE...AS WELL AS A WEAKER PERTURBATION TRANSLATING SEWD INTO
   ERN CO TO FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
   THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. 

   THE MOST INTENSE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED INVOF THE
   PRIMARY LEE TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...A
   BELT OF 30-35 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERLIES MUCH OF THIS INSTABILITY
   AXIS...RESULTING IN A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE AND SUFFICIENT
   VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ROTATION. AS SUCH...A RISK FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
   WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE
   ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A WATCH
   IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   ..MEAD.. 09/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37160144 38070147 39250153 40920149 42440144 42970114
               43010018 42689923 41999902 40269884 39099901 37909915
               37289967 37069991 36990062 37160144 

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Page last modified: September 23, 2014
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