MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA THROUGH SERN MN AND CNTRL THROUGH ERN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650...651...
   
   VALID 030702Z - 030830Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   650...651...CONTINUES.
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL SHOULD PERSIST FOR
   ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS FROM EXTREME SE MN INTO CNTRL AND ERN WI. THE
   THREAT FARTHER WEST ACROSS IA MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
   TWO...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   DECREASE. REMAINING PORTION OF WW 650 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z.
   AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST OVER
   ERN WI TO THE EAST OF WW 651 NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IF NECESSARY...WW
   651 CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FARTHER EAST INTO WI.
   
   
   WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL WI WWD THROUGH SRN MN WHERE IT
   INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM SWRN MN SWWD THROUGH SRN
   SD. AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS INDICATED FROM CNTRL
   THROUGH WRN IA. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD
   MOIST AXIS...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM
   ERN NEB THROUGH NRN IA...SRN MN AND WRN WI WITH 1500-2000 J/KG
   MUCAPE. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WI THIS MORNING WHERE A
   SWLY 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT
   NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THE GREEN BAY LOCAL RADAR INDICATES STORMS
   TRYING TO EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMMA HEAD
   STRUCTURE. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
   FEATURE INTO ERN WI...BUT A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SERVE AS A
   POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR.
   
   FARTHER WEST ACROSS IA...STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ALONG LEADING GUST
   FRONT AS ACTIVITY MOVES SE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER...NEW STORMS
   HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NW IA WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
   THIS AREA NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS
   EXPECTED AS LIFT DECREASES IN WAKE OF EWD MIGRATING LOW LEVEL JET.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/03/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...
   
   LAT...LON   45238875 44778761 43928788 44288925 45238875