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Mesoscale Discussion 1760
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 232305Z - 240030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO
   EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THAT EARLIER FORMED ALONG A WIND-SHIFT AXIS
   ARCING FROM W-CNTRL KS INTO SERN CO HAS CONGEALED INTO A
   SEMI-CONTINUOUS SQUALL LINE...WHICH IS APPROACHING THE DODGE CITY
   AREA FROM THE W. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD AND
   PERHAPS BACKBUILD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE VICINITY. INFLOW PARCELS
   REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE W OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH
   ANALYZED N/S ACROSS WRN KS THAT RUNS BETWEEN RUSSELL AND DODGE CITY.
   THE AIR MASS E OF THIS BOUNDARY IS COMPARATIVELY LESS BUOYANT IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN FRINGES OF AN ANTECEDENT COOL/DRY AIR
   MASS...AND SHOULD PROVE HOSTILE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF STRONGER
   STORMS INTO S-CNTRL KS AND NWRN OK LATER THIS EVENING.
   REGARDLESS...A FEW MORE HOURS OF SOME ISOLATED DMGG-WIND/SVR-HAIL
   POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE DDC VWP SAMPLES AROUND 35-40 KT
   OF DEEP SHEAR WITH VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36860214 37700076 38589977 38949937 38639908 37009974
               36540174 36860214 

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Page last modified: September 24, 2014
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