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Mesoscale Discussion 1762
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1762
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241810Z - 241945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THE
   THREATS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT
   THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
   NNEWD FROM ERN NM ACROSS THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SW KS WITH A
   CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
   TROUGH. SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS WEST TX ARE IN THE MID 60S F AND TEMPS
   HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE IN THE
   1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE NERN
   EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
   A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES SEWD
   ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE
   IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE STORMS MOVING SWWD INTO THE STRONGER
   INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT AMARILLO SHOWS
   40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAINLY DUE TO SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS.
   THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AS SFC TEMPS
   CONTINUE TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE
   ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   CONTINUE TO STEEPEN...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. 

   ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
   ORGANIZED WIND THREAT.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35750085 35790256 35420386 34770440 34060417 33740334
               33940177 34340044 35280026 35750085 

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Page last modified: September 24, 2014
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