Mesoscale Discussion 1763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017
Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...southern Illinois...far
southwestern Indiana...western Kentucky
Concerning...Tornado Watch 512...513...
Valid 060007Z - 060200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 512, 513 continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are slowly advancing east-southeastward
across the area ahead of a cold front. While these storms have some
tornado and hail potential, the primary severe weather threat will
likely transition to damaging winds. Tornado Watch 512 will be
allowed to expire at 0100Z, as storms move into downstream watches.
DISCUSSION...Isolated severe thunderstorms across the area have
shown gradual signs of weakening over the past couple of hours. In
addition, storms have also been trending from a discrete mode to
more of a linear mode with time. As a result, the primary severe
weather threat is expected to transition to damaging winds,
especially if the storms are able to develop an organized cold pool.
However, given the sufficient instability and strong low-level shear
across the area, a tornado cannot be ruled out for line segments
that become oriented in a north-south fashion.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37329064 37798953 38228872 38808787 38808715 38408674
37958679 37588703 37348759 37038824 36898872 36728927
36758972 36899039 37329064