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Mesoscale Discussion 1763
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1763
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SERN NM...WRN TX S PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 242208Z - 250015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   MAINLY OVER SERN NM THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
   ENOUGH FOR A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SWWD
   ACROSS WRN TX AND ERN NM WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPED DURING
   THE DAY. SLY SURFACE WINDS BENEATH NLY MID TO UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IS
   HELPING TO MAXIMIZE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND IS HELPING THESE STORMS TO
   PERSIST. ALSO BENEFICIAL IS THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

   RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL NEAR THE
   CLOVIS/CANNON AFB AREA WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.

   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TCU AHEAD OF THE
   SWWD-PROPAGATING ACTIVITY...SUGGESTING THESE STORMS SHOULD EASILY
   PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS MOSTLY BARREN LANDS BEFORE
   AFFECTING THE ROSWELL AREA.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 09/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   33630535 34400481 34720375 34540321 34480299 34210238
               33930234 33530240 32860263 32190319 31930404 31940485
               32170521 32520544 33630535 

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Page last modified: September 25, 2014
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