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Mesoscale Discussion 1764
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1764
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0740 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 260040Z - 260245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR 1-2 HOURS BEFORE DWINDLING
   AFTER SUNSET. MAINLY SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...TWO SMALL SUPERCELLS PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN
   GLENN COUNTY BETWEEN ORLAND AND WILLOWS CA WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS
   LED TO AROUND 500 J/KG MUCAPE WITH LOW-TOPPED INSTABILITY PROFILES.
   LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS WELL AS STRONG MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
   SHEAR PROFILES ARE HELPING THESE CELLS TO PERSIST WITH WEAK
   MESOCYCLONES NOTED AT TIMES.

   THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DUE TO
   FAVORABLE STORM MODE AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
   WEAK FOR APPRECIABLE TORNADO THREAT...AND...IT APPEARS OUTFLOW IS
   UNDERCUTTING THE CELLS FROM WILLOWS NWD. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN CELL
   JUST SW OF WILLOWS DOES APPEAR TO HAVE MORE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   INTERSECTION WITH THE SRN TIP OF THE UPDRAFT. IF ANY BRIEF TORNADO
   WERE TO OCCUR...THIS WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 09/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...STO...

   LAT...LON   39622190 39342211 39352223 39432236 39642242 39872223
               39932203 39862191 39622190 

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Page last modified: September 26, 2014
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