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Mesoscale Discussion 1765
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1765
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NV...WRN UT...AND EXTREME NWRN AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261844Z - 262045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM ERN
   NV...WRN UT INTO EXTREME NWRN AZ. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
   ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG DIABATIC WARMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS
   RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS ALONG MOIST AXIS
   FROM ERN NV...WRN UT INTO NWRN AZ. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
   AN AXIS OF MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG OVER SERN NV AND NWRN AZ TO
   AOB 500 J/KG OVER NERN NV AND NWRN UT. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
   AND PROGRESSIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
   UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING THE CNTRL CA COAST WITH ASSOCIATED
   UPPER JET FROM CNTRL CA THROUGH WRN NV. DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WEST OF
   PRIMARY MOIST AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
   DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WHILE STRONGER WIND PROFILES AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR ARE INITIALLY NOT PHASED WELL WITH THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS...AN INCREASE IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TOWARD EARLY EVENING AS THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. THE PHASING ISSUES AND MODEST
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS FOR A
   MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT. NEVERTHELESS...STORMS WILL HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL TO ORGANIZE AND DEVELOP MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AS THEY
   INTERACT WITH THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 09/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

   LAT...LON   36501562 39021531 40481450 39781337 36651324 35711444
               36501562 

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Page last modified: September 26, 2014
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