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Mesoscale Discussion 1766
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1766
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0649 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2017

   Areas affected...Northwest/north-central/central AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061249Z - 061445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible for the next hour or so with a
   cluster of thunderstorms moving east-northeastward across
   northwest/north-central AR.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown a strengthening trend
   with the thunderstorms that developed within the warm-air advection
   regime across northwest AR. 12Z LZK sounding sampled over 1500 J/kg
   of MUCAPE and recent mesoanalysis suggest this instability stretches
   up into northern AR. Environment across the region is also strongly
   sheared with the 12Z LZK sounding reporting over 40-45 kt of
   effective bulk shear. Given this favorable instability and shear,
   the ongoing elevated thunderstorms may persist for the next hour or
   two. Lapse rates are rather modest but the strength of the shear
   supports storm rotation and some hail is possible. Gradual weakening
   is expected after a few hours as instability decreases as a result
   of cooling mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent weakens
   with a weakening southwesterly low/mid-level flow.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 11/06/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36019416 36009339 35539165 35229148 34879148 34689168
               34699224 34969329 35149422 35339471 35609468 36019416 

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Page last modified: November 06, 2017
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