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Mesoscale Discussion 1768
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN AND ERN NV...SWRN UT...NWRN AZ...AND
   ADJACENT SERN CA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 270844Z - 271045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE DESERT SW THIS MORNING WILL
   INCREASINGLY BECOME CAPABLE OF LOCAL HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
   ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR
   OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN NV AND SERN CA INTO ADJACENT UT/AZ
   ATTM....AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE CA CENTRAL
   VALLEY E OF SFO.  A MOIST AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
   THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND BLENDED TPW IN EXCESS OF 1"/ REMAINS IN
   PLACE AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL NV TO SERN CA COLD FRONT...CONTRIBUTING
   TO MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE PER OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES.

   WITH THE STRONGER ASCENT NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD ATOP THE AXIS OF
   GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
   THE DISCUSSION AREA HAVE SHOWN A NOTED INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR. 
   WITH THIS TREND TO CONTINUE -- WITHIN A BACKGROUND KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT FEATURING FAVORABLY STRONG/INCREASING FLOW WITH
   HEIGHT...A FEW ROTATING STORMS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK POSSIBLY
   REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 09/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...

   LAT...LON   39601408 39571271 38411250 35741275 34361301 34371520
               36151482 38421582 39521530 39601408 

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Page last modified: September 27, 2014
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