Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1770
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1770 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...AZ...UT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 271653Z - 271800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS POSING SOME RISK FOR
   HIGH WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL AZ AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UT.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS
   WESTERN AZ INTO SOUTHWEST UT AHEAD OF A STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING UPPER
   TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CA/WESTERN NV. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
   AIDED BY HEIGHT FALLS AND ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER JET ROUNDING
   THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CA LOW WILL SPREAD GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS
   THE BULK OF CENTRAL AZ AND SOUTHERN UT THROUGH THE DAY. CONFLUENT
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT MASS AND MOISTURE FLUXES IN RESPONSE TO
   THE UPPER FORCING...IN ADDITION TO OROGRAPHIC
   ENHANCEMENT/LIFT...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT AMIDST MODEST LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY BOOSTED BY
   POCKETS OF STRONGER INSOLATION.

   OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...OCCASIONALLY LONGER-LIVED CELLS WITHIN
   THE LARGER CONVECTIVE PLUME HAVE EXHIBITED ROTATION AND LEWP
   STRUCTURES INDICATIVE OF A CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
   SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING
   WINDS. NOW THAT DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IS UNDERWAY AND DEEP-LAYER
   WIND FIELDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS THE TROUGH
   EDGES EAST...THE CHANCES FOR LINE SEGMENTS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS
   SHOULD INCREASE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AND A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED
   TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   ..CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   37661314 38521261 38651223 38621118 37531061 35961040
               34261077 32721247 32521397 33311348 34411329 36471318
               37661314 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 27, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities