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Mesoscale Discussion 1771
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1771
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...AZ...UT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508...

   VALID 272040Z - 272245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND
   A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WITHIN SEVERE TSTM WATCH 508
   CURRENTLY RESIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY
   AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY...AND WERE DEVELOPING
   NORTHEAST AROUND 30KT. VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
   SOUTHERN AZ SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN
   THE FORM OF HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
   PHOENIX METRO AREA...AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST...OVER THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS.

   CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLUME OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
   WATCH...FROM NORTHERN AZ INTO SOUTHERN UT...HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO
   WEAKEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
   LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACH OF THE LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH
   FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...ISOLATED DISCRETE STRONGER UPDRAFTS APPEAR
   TO BE FORMING IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST...OVER PORTIONS
   OF NORTHERN NAVAJO COUNTY...AND EASTERN KANE COUNTY IN UT. EXPECT
   THE PROSPECTS OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS
   TO DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
   OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC REGIMES REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO
   ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND FAST-MOVING
   LINE SEGMENTS.

   ..CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   32591175 32591312 35521273 38471234 38471087 38470938
               35520988 32591037 32591175 

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Page last modified: September 27, 2014
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