MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1772
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IND...SW OH...KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656...
   
   VALID 041641Z - 041815Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656
   CONTINUES.
   
   DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN/
   CENTRAL KENTUCKY EXISTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  HEAVY RAINFALL/
   FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SOME HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN
   ONGOING CONVECTION.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW
   SOUTH OF WW 656.
   
   VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGEST
   PORTION OF THE SURFACE COLD POOL PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
   SHORTLY...AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN ENVIRONMENT STABILIZED BY PRIOR
   CONVECTION EAST OF THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.  HOWEVER...RECENT NEW
   STORMS ALONG GUST FRONT SOUTHWEST OF BLOOMINGTON INTO AREAS NEAR/
   WEST OF EVANSVILLE...COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
   STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF ELEVATED MIXED
   LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE PLAINS...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GROWING
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR/SOUTH AND WEST OF LOUISVILLE BETWEEN NOW AND
   18-19Z.  INHIBITION CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH SURFACE HEATING
   ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE THE VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG.  AND...
   FORCING/SHEAR MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW
   AMPLITUDE IMPULSE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER CYCLONIC MID/
   UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/04/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...
   
   LAT...LON   37968797 38428727 38878675 39098621 38708524 38138497
               37648437 36978358 36548470 36678560 37118787 37968797