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Mesoscale Discussion 1772
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1772
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AZ INTO SRN UT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508...

   VALID 272308Z - 280115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   THIS EVENING N AND E OF THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH HEAVY RAIN
   PERSISTING AS WELL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO E
   BEHIND THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CELLS WITH ONLY NON-SEVERE STORMS
   THEREAFTER.

   DISCUSSION...AN INITIAL SURGE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
   CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD TOWARD THE RIM AFTER CAUSING DAMAGE
   IN THE PHOENIX AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE REGENERATED ACROSS PINAL
   COUNTY WHERE SLY WINDS ARE MAINTAINING A FEED OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE
   AIR NWD AND INTERACTING WITH EXISTING OUTFLOW.

   AS THE MAIN FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUE EWD...THE THETA-E AXIS
   WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EWD WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE
   MOGOLLON RIM AND TOWARD THE WHITE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS EVENING.
   HERE...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...BUT THE LOSS OF
   HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL. AS A
   RESULT...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   FARTHER N INTO NRN AZ AND SRN UT...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MORE
   MARGINAL GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY...BUT STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND A
   DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT HIGH BASED CELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
   SEVERE WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

   ..JEWELL.. 09/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   33400927 33180925 32940926 32720936 32510960 32300996
               32101066 32061114 32201166 32471189 32801201 33611210
               34501192 35411180 35641123 35671066 35391014 34940988
               34460961 33730934 33400927 

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Page last modified: September 28, 2014
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