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Mesoscale Discussion 1773
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1773
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NM...CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 291756Z - 292000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
   EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF NM/CO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
   THIS ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY AND ORGANIZE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
   WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL INCREASING FROM NORTHEAST NM
   ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY BY 20 UTC/2 PM MDT.

   DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS
   WAS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LARGE-SCALE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED
   OVER THE GREAT BASIN. STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
   WAS EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A LAYERED
   COMMA-HEAD CLOUD STRUCTURE TRACKING TOWARD THE FOUR-CORNERS.
   ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEEN UNDERWAY WITHIN THE WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COMMA-HEAD/VORT MAX...FROM NORTHWEST
   NM INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CO. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS STRONGER DYNAMIC
   FORCING AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST.

   AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE HAS BEEN WARMING INTO THE
   70S F IN MOST AREAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THESE AREAS HAS
   BEEN ADEQUATE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RISING THROUGH THE
   LOW-MID 50S F. STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
   STRONGER ASCENT TO SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 500
   J/KG. CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND DEVELOPING EAST
   FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS SHOULD GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
   AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 50-60KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK TRACK
   EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE INITIALLY CELLULAR/DISCRETE...WITH TIME STORMS
   MAY TEND CONCENTRATE ALONG/NEAR STRENGTHENING LEE-TROUGH/LOW
   GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/NORTHEAST NM. GIVEN 40-60KT
   EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR AND ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
   LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS...INITIALLY CELLULAR CONVECTION MAY TEND
   TO EVOLVE INTO FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE AFTERNOON
   PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION TO SOME CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH
   IN DIAMETER...SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE AS
   STORMS INCREASE/INTENSIFY AND SPREAD EAST.

   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO
   ADJACENT AREAS OF WY/NEB/KS. THESE AREAS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN
   SEPARATE DISCUSSION AND MAY ALSO BE PLACED UNDER A WATCH LATER
   TODAY.

   ..CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37560566 38580527 38900509 39210465 39340386 39240324
               39090273 38200218 36770228 35970282 35310380 34270593
               34270656 34500711 34930720 35590701 36460627 37560566 

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Page last modified: September 29, 2014
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