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Mesoscale Discussion 1774
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1774
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CO...WY...NE...KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 291919Z - 292015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND
   POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   NORTHEAST CO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
   EXPAND AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NEB AND KS BY
   EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE
   FOUR CORNERS AREA AND ACROSS EASTERN CO THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
   ADDITION TO CONTRIBUTING TO LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN
   PLAINS OF CO...INTENSIFYING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   DISTURBANCE WILL ACT ON A SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT
   ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY CURRENTLY INCREASING
   ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST AND
   STRENGTHEN AS FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR INTENSIFY WITH
   THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPEED MAX.

   CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...AND
   COINCIDENT WITH LEE-LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
   FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE NORTHEASTWARD...MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
   FOCUSED FORCING AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE FROM
   NAM4 TO HRRR TO WRF-ARW ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A RAPID
   INCREASE IN SUPERCELL POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST CO IN THE 21-23
   UTC/3-5 PM MDT TIME FRAME. THESE SCENARIOS APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
   CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND PRESENCE OF BACKED LOW LEVEL
   FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST NEAR THE DEVELOPING LEE-LOW AND ALONG THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AS THE STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING BEGINS
   TO EMERGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   ..CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41370431 40880467 40460478 40010495 39650494 39240492
               38790441 38720414 38640391 38580350 38630277 38750212
               39140171 40390128 41510128 42020220 42040232 42020329
               41870382 41370431 

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Page last modified: September 29, 2014
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