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Mesoscale Discussion 1776
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0552 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...ADJACENT SE WY...SWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 510...

   VALID 292252Z - 300015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 510 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
   AND NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
   NEBRASKA...THROUGH 03Z.  THIS INCLUDES A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
   INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST
   COLORADO.  AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS THAT A NEW WW MAY NOT BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...BENEATH DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
   THE STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK...NOW NOSING ACROSS THE
   ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SCATTERED VIGOROUS STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COLORADO. 
   THIS INCLUDES A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST
   MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

   STRONGER LINEAR LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE COLORADO SPRINGS AND TRINIDAD
   AREA...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ADVANCING NORTHEAST OF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE EASTERN COLORADO STATE BORDER AREA THROUGH
   THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME.  AS THIS OCCURS...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
   APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPSCALE
   GROWING/INTENSIFYING SQUALL LINE...BEFORE ENCOUNTERING INFLOW OF
   MORE STABLE OR STABILIZING /WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHWESTERN
   NEBRASKA.

   UNTIL BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE APPROACHING STRONGER LINEAR
   FORCING...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL PERSIST ANOTHER
   COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE LIMON/AKRON AREAS.  SOUTHERLY
   850 MB FLOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING FROM 30-50 KTS ACROSS
   THIS REGION...AND ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COULD STILL SUPPORT
   A PERIOD OF INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL... BEFORE THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE INFLOW SOURCE REGION.

   ..KERR.. 09/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41160477 41720479 42040392 41730239 41130189 40040181
               38890208 38560271 38570381 39100404 40240408 41160477 

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Page last modified: September 30, 2014
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