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Mesoscale Discussion 1777
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SERN CO...SWRN KS...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509...

   VALID 300000Z - 300100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND ISOLATED SVR HAIL POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST FOR
   THE NEXT COUPLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE DMGG
   WIND THREAT MAY EXTEND SLIGHTLY E OF WW 509 ACROSS SWRN KS...BUT A
   NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AS POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
   DECREASE AFTER 02-03Z.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   PERSISTING ACROSS NERN NM...APPROACHING THE NWRN TX AND WRN OK
   PANHANDLES...POSING A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY SVR
   HAIL. STORMS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW IN E-CNTRL NM HAVE
   EXHIBITED SLOW WEAKENING TRENDS OVER THE PAST HR. 

   FARTHER N/W...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG A PACIFIC COLD
   FRONT FROM SERN CO SWWD INTO NERN NM...AS A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK IS
   EJECTING NEWD FROM N-CNTRL NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGRESSING EWD INTO
   A MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /SEE 00Z AMA
   SOUNDING/...CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS...WITH BUOYANCY
   FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER OWING TO NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
   COOLING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING JET STREAK
   SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED N OF THE MCD AREA INTO NERN CO
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
   EWD PROGRESSION OF A CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT TO WITHIN OR JUST E OF
   WW 509...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO FAR SWRN KS THIS EVENING. A NEW WW
   IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   ..ROGERS.. 09/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38170140 37330146 36460212 34490344 33950443 34120521
               34870546 36070493 37350400 38410356 38580321 38600209
               38170140 

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Page last modified: September 30, 2014
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