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Mesoscale Discussion 1779
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN IA/FAR NORTHWEST MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 302209Z - 302345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN IA AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST MO THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...AT LEAST GLANCING DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR TO BE
   OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
   NORTHEASTWARD-SPREADING CYCLONE CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL SD.
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A BAND OF PERSISTENTLY THICK
   CLOUD/PRECIPITATION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED
   ACROSS WESTERN IA IN VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT THAT ANGLES
   NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
   COVER EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
   /NEAR 80 F TEMPERATURES AS OF 20Z/ APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING INTO PARTS
   OF SOUTHWEST IA...WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME NEAR SURFACE-BASED
   STORMS. WITH A FEW WEAK/TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS ALREADY HAVE BEEN
   NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY...RELATIVELY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND
   PROFILES IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS
   WESTERN IA AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST MO. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
   SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER/BUOYANCY
   MARGINALITY...A BRIEF TORNADO/STRONG WIND GUST RISK CANNOT BE
   ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 09/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41289557 42139566 42139474 40569388 40309548 41289557 

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Page last modified: September 30, 2014
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