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Mesoscale Discussion 1780
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 302057Z - 302230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO
   HOURS WITH A RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 2040Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A
   DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM EDMUNDS TO CHARLES
   MIX COUNTIES IN CNTRL/ERN SD. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
   DEVELOPMENT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S WHICH WHEN
   COUPLED WITH A NARROW AXIS OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
   ALONG AND S/SW OF A NWD-MOVING COLD FRONT IS RESULTING IN SBCAPE OF
   500-1000 J/KG.

   BASED ON RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL RUNS...STORM INITIATION
   AND SUSTENANCE REMAINS IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...TRENDS IN SATELLITE
   DATA DO SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
   ONE TO HOURS...GENERALLY EAST OF THE U.S. 281 CORRIDOR. CURRENT VAD
   DATA FROM ABERDEEN AND SIOUX FALLS INDICATE PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL
   AND SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER WITH GENERALLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THAT LAYER. AS
   SUCH...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
   LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND PERHAPS
   SOME HAIL GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.

   ..MEAD.. 09/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   43669802 44319807 44979839 45339876 45859890 45899786
               45649714 44889671 44079667 43699695 43489751 43669802 

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Page last modified: September 30, 2014
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