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Mesoscale Discussion 1781
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT SUN OCT 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL NEW MEXICO...WRN AND CNTRL NEW
   MEXICO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 091814Z - 092015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
   BY AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.  IT STILL
   SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED /DUE PRIMARILY TO THE
   ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS/...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...WEAK TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS
   TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
   ADJACENT EASTERN ARIZONA...PARTICULARLY FROM NEAR THE MOGOLLON
   MOUNTAINS INTO THE VICINITY OF SAN MATEO MOUNTAINS.  THIS IS WHERE
   OROGRAPHIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING THE GRADUAL INITIATION
   OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
   PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  AS
   INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS BECOMES INCREASINGLY
   NEGLIGIBLE WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
   INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION INTO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 19-21Z.

   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER LIGHT...BUT
   VEERING WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 40-50 KT CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
   THE 300-250 MB LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  AT
   LEAST SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE
   DISCRETE CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES EASTWARD
   INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  SEVERE HAIL SEEMS THE
   PRIMARY POTENTIAL SEVERE HAZARD...BUT LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS
   MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   ..KERR/HART.. 10/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...

   LAT...LON   34370876 35030785 35160678 34710664 33540668 32760712
               32550819 32660891 33170960 34070934 34370876 

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Page last modified: October 09, 2016
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