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Mesoscale Discussion 1781
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0521 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 302221Z - 302315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF A
   WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE...BUT POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CAPE AND ANY ASSOCIATED
   HAIL/WIND RISK.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING/MIXING HAS REMOVED CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE ZONE OF
   DIFFUSE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE
   INTERSECTION WITH A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR HYS.  DEEP-LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS...WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY CLOSE TO I-70.  THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE
   SPREADING NEWD...BUT ONLY MID-UPPER 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT MLCAPE
   TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  THUS...THE HAIL/WIND RISK WILL BE MARGINAL AT
   BEST IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS POSSIBLE WHERE
   WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE RICHER MOISTURE AND
   STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY.  THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A
   WATCH AT THIS TIME.

   ..THOMPSON.. 09/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   39179900 39519768 39739680 39639654 39369652 38689724
               38089790 37619842 37249894 37089947 37309973 38149943
               38849936 39179900 

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Page last modified: September 30, 2014
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