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Mesoscale Discussion 1782
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK / SERN KS / SWRN INTO E-CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 011844Z - 012115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.  1 OR 2 WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 1835Z SHOWS A CU FIELD
   FROM SERN KS EWD THROUGH CNTRL MO IMMEDIATELY S OF AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM 35 MI WSW STL TO 15 MI S OJC.  STRONG DIABATIC
   HEATING TO THE S OF THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO
   THE 80S.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOISTURE RESERVOIR OVER ERN OK
   INTO SERN KS AND FAR SWRN MO WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE RANGING FROM 68-71
   DEG F.  25-KT SSWLY H85 FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A MOIST FETCH INTO
   CNTRL MO AIDING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION/DESTABILIZATION.  

   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS INDICATED THE REMAINING CINH HAS WEAKENED
   SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG
   SBCAPE OVER NERN OK/SERN KS.  WATER VAPOR HOWEVER HAS SHOWN A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING STORM ACTIVITY OVER NRN MO
   CONTINUING TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
   WRN GREAT LAKES WHILE A CORRIDOR OF 30-40 KT CYCLONIC SWLY H5 FLOW
   IS OVERHEAD.  NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE CAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND
   COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  AN ADDITIONAL COMPLICATING
   FACTOR IS LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER
   TODAY WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN CONVERGENCE.  NONETHELESS RECENT
   ITERATIONS OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GRADUAL
   INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE AREA.  THE MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY/SHEAR
   WOULD PROMOTE ORGANIZATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND AN
   ATTENDANT ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.  RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2 KM MAY LEND
   SOME SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER MAINLY PARTS OF SERN KS AND
   PERHAPS ADJACENT SWRN MO AND NERN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   38109011 36939342 36259517 36269621 36559674 37169686
               38289642 38879441 39279246 39059084 38109011 

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Page last modified: October 01, 2014
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