Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1783
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1783 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1783
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern Texas...central/northern
   Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 050722Z - 050845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado could occur over the next 1-2 hours.
   However, the threat should be relatively transient/confined,
   precluding watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar data illustrate a cluster of convective
   cells from eastern Texas to northern Louisiana early this morning,
   ahead of a cold front pushing southeast across the Arklatex.
   Developing within a modest low-level warm-advection/confluent
   regime, these cells are likely being aided by a weak southern-stream
   impulse currently crossing the upper Texas coast. KPOE VWP data
   depict some veering with height through the lowest 2 km, with 0-1km
   storm-relative helicity around 150 m2/s2. Several of these cells
   have occasionally exhibited weak rotation, and this trend may
   continue for the next hour or two. Therefore, despite weak buoyancy
   (evidenced by a lack of CG lightning), a favorably moist boundary
   layer may support a brief tornado. However, as low-level flow
   continues to veer this morning, this potential should diminish with
   decreasing shear.

   ..Picca/Guyer.. 12/05/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   31039460 32039326 32109250 32019193 31709153 31339148
               31169164 30769311 30589447 31039460 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: December 05, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities