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Mesoscale Discussion 1783
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0501 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF NWRN MO AND NERN KS...INCLUDING THE KANSAS
   CITY METRO AND EWD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012201Z - 020030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A CLUSTER
   OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA AND
   EWD BETWEEN 22-00Z.  GIVEN A LIMITED COVERAGE AREA AND POTENTIAL
   OCCURRENCE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT
   WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2140Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF
   STORMS APPROACHING THE SOUTH PART OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO
   AREA...WITH THE LEADING PORTION EXTENDING FROM JOHNSON COUNTY MO TO
   FRANKLIN COUNTY KS...WITH THE CLUSTER EXTENDING SWD TO ANDERSON
   COUNTY KS TO BATES COUNTY MO.  THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING NEWD AT 30
   KT AS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE METRO AREA BETWEEN 22-00Z. 
   MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT BISECTING MO
   FROM NORTH OF STL TO MORGAN COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY TO
   NRN BATES COUNTY MO AND THEN INTO LINN COUNTY KS.  A SEPARATE WIND
   SHIFT EXTENDED NWWD FROM LINN COUNTY TO WRN JOHNSON TO JEFFERSON
   COUNTIES KS.  LITTLE MOVEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE TWO
   BOUNDARIES...WITH THE E-W BOUNDARY BEING REINFORCED BY ONGOING
   STORMS TRACKING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO.

   ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN
   ORGANIZED STORMS NWD INTO NRN MO AND KS...A LESS UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES SHOULD
   TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.  IT SHOULD
   ALSO RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF ONGOING STRONGER STORMS TO
   WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS THESE BOUNDARIES.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38699338 38589416 38719470 39049490 39399451 39609372
               39539312 39209288 38919298 38699338 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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