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Mesoscale Discussion 1784
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1784
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0504 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE/E-CNTRL CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012204Z - 020000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONALLY STRONG TO SVR
   WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD/EWD INTO ERN CO. OVERALL
   ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SVR
   THREAT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH ACROSS WRN UT HAS INITIATED TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT
   RANGE DESPITE ONLY A MODESTLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
   RECENT KFTG RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A SEWD PROGRESSING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY ENTERING MORGAN AND ADAMS
   COUNTIES AND AN EWD PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF ACTIVITY
   ENTERING BENNETT AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES. SOME AMALGAMATION OF THESE
   BOUNDARIES IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE COLD POOLS THEN ACTING AS AN
   EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THEY CONTINUE EWD/SEWD INTO KS. 

   STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE PERSISTENCE OF
   WEAK TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN CO. ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED WLY FLOW
   ALOFT MAY ACT TO OCCASIONALLY INCREASE WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE
   WITH SOME STRONG TO SVR GUSTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
   ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SVR
   THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 10/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40280436 40630403 40770361 40700283 40370252 39790272
               39120330 38790410 38890484 39850466 40280436 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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